VRL-AUTO-001Market Intelligence

SA Automotive Intelligence — Vol. 1, 2026.

A research-grade quarterly briefing on the South African automotive market: verified 2025 NAAMSA results, brand share shifts, the Chinese OEM disruption, dealer performance, jobs and macro context, and forward-looking analysis for SA dealerships.

Published
April 2026
Authors
Jess (AI) + VRL Editorial
Publisher
Visio Research Labs
License
CC BY 4.0
Executive Summary — updated April 2026

South Africa's new vehicle market staged a decisive recovery in 2025, with NAAMSA reporting 596,818 total units sold — up 15.7% on 2024. The momentum has accelerated into Q1 2026: March 2026 reached 58,060 units, the best March since 2007, with year-to-date volumes tracking 12% ahead of Q1 2025. The bigger story is structural. Suzuki overtook Volkswagen Group for the #2 brand position for the first time ever in 2025. Chinese OEMs collectively pushed past 17% of new passenger sales (up from <5% four years prior). And in a watershed moment for local manufacturing, Chery South Africa has acquired Nissan's 60-year-old Rosslyn plant in Tshwane— the first major Chinese OEM industrial footprint in SA. Meanwhile, exports collapsed 28.1% YoY in February 2026 and Morocco has overtaken South Africa as the #1 vehicle producer on the African continent. The retail boom and the manufacturing crisis are happening in the same market, at the same time. This paper documents both. Every figure is sourced from NAAMSA, TransUnion, AutoTrader, SARS, Stats SA, dealer group SENS announcements, and the trade press. Sources cited inline.

1. The headline numbers — verified

The most important fact about the South African automotive market in 2025 is that it finally broke out of its post-pandemic compression. The market did not just recover — it posted its strongest annual print in over ten years.

Metric20242025Change
Total new vehicle sales (units)515,712596,818+15.7%
Passenger cars (units)~351,500422,292+20.1%
Light commercial vehicles~152,500~155,000flat
Used vehicles (AutoTrader-tracked)~358,000383,410+7.0%
Used vehicle market value (R)R149.6bnR160.1bn+7.0%

Sources: NAAMSA December 2025 / Full Year 2025 release; TechCentral analysis; IOL Business Report; Dealerfloor on AutoTrader 20th Annual Report.

1.1 Why 2025 happened — the four tailwinds

  1. Interest rate cuts. The South African Reserve Bank delivered a cumulative 150 basis points of rate cuts from September 2024 onwards. For a typical R400,000 vehicle financed over 72 months, that translates to roughly R900-R1,100 per month off the instalment — meaningful enough to reset affordability for the marginal buyer.
  2. Vehicle inflation collapsed. The arrival of Chinese OEM volume at 15-25% below comparable Toyota and VW pricing applied direct downward pressure on average transaction prices. New vehicle inflation in 2025 was the lowest in years.
  3. Two-pot retirement reform. The September 2024 implementation of South Africa's two-pot retirement system released an estimated R40-60 billion of household liquidity in 2025, much of which flowed into vehicle deposits, debt repayment, and consumer durables.
  4. Improved consumer sentiment. The post-2024 Government of National Unity (GNU) period coincided with materially improved business and consumer confidence indices, plus the suspension of meaningful load-shedding through most of 2025.

1.2 Q1 2026 update — the momentum continues

Since this paper's initial publication, NAAMSA has released Q1 2026 monthly data. The 2025 recovery is not slowing — it is accelerating.

Reporting monthTotal domestic sales (units)YoY growthHeadline
January 202650,073+7.5%LCVs rebound +11%; passenger cars +7.1%
February 202653,455+11.4%Best February since 2013
March 202658,060+17.3%Best March since 2007 — passenger +18.2%
Q1 2026 total~161,588+12.0%Tracking ahead of Q1 2025 by 12%

Of the 58,060 vehicles sold in March 2026, an estimated 88.7% (51,481 units) were channeled through traditional dealer networks — with vehicle rental at 5.5%, government at 3.2%, and corporate fleets at 2.6%. The overwhelming dominance of dealership sales indicates that this growth is driven by ordinary retail consumers, not institutional fleet renewals.

NADA Chairperson Brandon Cohennoted that this performance “far exceeded expectations, particularly given the cost-of-living pressures”, suggesting that strong demand in the entry-level market played a vital role in supporting overall sales volumes. Dealer confidence reached a 13-year high of 67 index points in early 2026.

1.3 The macro engine behind the surge

  • Prime rate at 10.25%, down from a peak of 11.75%, after cumulative 150 bps cuts since September 2024
  • Headline inflation at 3.0% YoY in February 2026, the lowest in years
  • Private sector credit extension +8.7% YoY (Dec 2025), driven by robust corporate borrowing
  • New vehicle inflation at a record-low 1.2% in late 2025/early 2026, contrasted with 1.9% deflation in used vehicle prices
  • Two-pot retirement reform released an estimated R40-60bn of household liquidity in 2025

1.4 The fuel price shock — a counter-narrative

The 2026 National Budget introduced incremental increases to the general fuel levy, the carbon fuel levy, and the Road Accident Fund levy, effective April 2026. Compounding these statutory increases, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove Brent crude above US$80/bbl while the rand softened to R16.16/USD.

  • Diesel prices hiked by more than R7 a litre to a record R26.11 in April 2026
  • Petrol +R3.06 per litre across both grades

These shocks have fundamentally altered consumer psychology. Buyers are running longer research cycles, comparing vehicles more acutely, and heavily weighting fuel consumption, maintenance plans, insurance premiums, and long-term reliability in their decisions.The era is one of consumer pragmatism — total cost of ownership over a 3-5 year lifecycle, not initial sticker price.

Sources: NAAMSA monthly sales releases (January, February, March 2026); NADA; TransUnion Q4 2025 Mobility Insights Report; SARB Monetary Policy Committee statements; Department of Mineral Resources & Energy fuel price publications. Brandon Cohen quoted via NADA press releases.

2. The top-selling vehicles — Toyota Hilux extends to 13 years

The Toyota Hilux extended its remarkable streak as South Africa's best-selling vehicle for the 13th consecutive year. The Hilux/Ranger 1-2-3 positioning of bakkies plus the Polo Vivo confirms that the SA new vehicle market remains structurally a bakkie + budget-hatchback market — the same shape it has had for over a decade.

RankModel2025 UnitsNotes
1Toyota Hilux36,52513th straight year as #1; ~6.1% of total market
2VW Polo Vivo26,067Locally built passenger car leader
3Ford Ranger25,465Held #3
4Suzuki Swift23,921Up from #6; briefly toppled the Hilux in January 2025

Sources: Best Selling Cars Blog — SA Full Year 2025; The Citizen — SA's 15 best-selling vehicles of 2025; Best Selling Cars Blog — January 2025.

2.1 March 2026 — the new brand hierarchy

The full top 10 OEM rankings for March 2026 reveal how rapidly the competitive hierarchy is rearranging:

RankManufacturerMar 2026 UnitsYoY Change
1Toyota13,323+1,051
2Volkswagen Group5,574+679
3Suzuki5,047−1,515
4Isuzu3,513+1,142
5Hyundai3,258+122
6Ford2,828−100
7GWM2,777+163
8Chery2,390+78
9Mahindra2,280+284
10Jetour1,768+95

Three structural insights emerge from this matrix:

  1. Toyota remains untouchable, bolstered by the locally-built Hilux and aggressive pricing on imported entry models (Starlet, Vitz, Urban Cruiser).
  2. Isuzu has displaced Hyundai for #4, driven by sustained D-Max bakkie performance in commercial and lifestyle segments.
  3. Asian OEMs occupy 4 of the top 10 positions (GWM #7, Chery #8, Mahindra #9, Jetour #10), collectively accounting for nearly 10,000 units in a single month. This is the “Asian OEM Disruption” in action.

Source: NAAMSA March 2026 industry sales report.

3. Brand share — the structural shift

Toyota's dominance is the single most stable fact in the SA market. But the #2 spot changed hands in 2025, and Chinese brands broke into the top 10 in force. This is the most significant brand-share reshuffle in the post-COVID era.

RankBrand / Group2025 UnitsNotes
1Toyota (incl. Lexus, Hino)148,12224.8% share — 46th consecutive year as #1
2Suzuki71,560Record. First time in #2 — overtook VW Group
3Volkswagen GroupDropped to #3
8Chery25,304+26.7% YoY; share grew 3.9% → 4.2%
9Kia18,517+25.3% YoY, returned to top 10
top 10MahindraFirst-ever top-10 finish, +40.7% YoY
12Nissan15,085−32.3% YoY, lost 5 places

Sources: Cars.co.za — SA's 10 best-selling automakers of 2025; BusinessTech — Best-selling cars and brands in SA; Focus2Move — South Africa Auto Sales 2025.

Visio Auto Insight

The Suzuki overtake of VW Group is the canary in the coal mine. Suzuki sells almost entirely on price-to-feature ratio in the entry passenger segment. The same buyer segment that lifted Suzuki is the one Chinese OEMs are now hunting with the Chery Tiggo 4 Pro, Haval Jolion, BYD Dolphin Surf, and Omoda C5. Our signal data shows that buyers searching for “Suzuki Swift” or “Polo Vivo” increasingly cross-shop Chinese alternatives in the same session. Dealers carrying multi-brand floors with at least one Chinese franchise have a structural advantage in capturing the “value-conscious upgrader” who defined SA new-vehicle buying in 2025.

4. The Chinese OEM disruption — verified

The single most consequential structural shift in the South African automotive market in the 2024-2026 period has been the rapid expansion of Chinese OEMs.

4.1 The new entrants and their footprints

  • BYD — Dealer network expansion from 13 in 2025 to a planned 30-35 by end of 2026 — nearly tripling the footprint. Recently doubled local lineup with the Shark PHEV bakkie, Sealion 6 PHEV crossover, and Sealion 7 BEV SUV. Cheapest entry: BYD Dolphin Surf at R339,900.
  • GWM (Great Wall Motors) — Currently the largest Chinese automaker in SA by volume. Bakkie focus through the P-Series, plus Haval-branded SUVs (Jolion, H6, H6 HEV) and the Tank 300. Currently hunting an SA factory after losing the local-assembly competition to Chery.
  • Chery — Re-entered SA in 2021 via the Tiggo range. Now #8 in SA brand rankings with 25,304 units in 2025 (+26.7% YoY). Launching 8 new hybrids in SA, including 5 EREVs and 3 HEVs, plus two new small crossovers and a forthcoming pickup. Won the local-assembly nod over GWM.
  • Omoda & Jaecoo — Chery sub-brands launched in SA in 2023-2024. Studying local assembly options.
  • MG (SAIC) — Reintroduced to SA after a long absence under Chinese ownership in 2024.
  • Mahindra — Not Chinese, but the same disruption pattern: first-ever top-10 finish in 2025, +40.7% YoY.

Sources: TimesLIVE — BYD to nearly triple SA dealer network; BusinessTech — Chery launching 19 cars in SA; Automotive World — GWM hunts SA factory; TechCentral — BYD supercharges SA expansion.

4.2 Why this matters for dealers

  1. Pricing power. Equivalent feature sets at 15-25% below comparable Toyota or VW pricing. This is significant in a market where vehicle finance affordability is the binding constraint for the majority of buyers.
  2. Feature density. Touchscreens, ADAS features, panoramic roofs, soft-close doors — specifications typically reserved for European premium brands — appearing on R350,000-R450,000 Chinese SUVs.
  3. Aggressive dealer recruitment. Lower franchise capital requirements and faster onboarding compared to legacy OEMs. BYD's tripling of its network in 12 months is the playbook.
  4. Stock availability. While legacy German brands still quote 3-6 month waits on specced units, Chinese brands have stock on the ground. Ready inventory beats premium brand prestige in a price-led market.

4.3 The Chery acquisition of Nissan Rosslyn — a watershed moment

Breaking — verified

In a watershed moment for South African manufacturing, Chery South Africa has finalized a comprehensive agreement to acquire Nissan South Africa's legacy manufacturing assets, including the iconic 60-year-old Rosslyn plant in Tshwane and its nearby stamping facility. This is the first major Chinese OEM industrial footprint in South Africa, and arguably the most consequential manufacturing news since the original Toyota Prospecton plant.

  • The asset: Nissan's 60-year-old Rosslyn plant in Tshwane plus nearby stamping facility
  • The retrofit timeline: Chery will completely re-commission the plant over 12-18 months, targeting commencement of local high-volume production by end-2027
  • The product mix: Both ICE models and New Energy Vehicles — specifically hybrid and plug-in hybrid platforms (matching consumer pragmatism described in Section 1.4)
  • The job impact: Approximately 3,000 direct and indirect jobs across manufacturing, logistics, and supply chain. The majority of displaced Nissan employees have been offered employment under Chery, preserving critical assembly skills in the Tshwane manufacturing hub
  • The strategic intent: Chery uses South Africa as a strategic export hub to penetrate broader African and European markets, leveraging the AfCFTA and existing SA bilateral trade arrangements
  • The volume backdrop: Chery currently averages 50,000 units annually in SA across its 150-dealer network — a base large enough to justify domestic assembly

Why this matters: SA manufacturing has been hollowing out as legacy OEMs (notably Nissan) retreat and imports surge. The Chery acquisition is the first major industrial commitment from the Chinese OEM wave that has been disrupting SA retail. It potentially marks the start of a transition from “Chinese OEMs as importers” to “Chinese OEMs as SA manufacturers” — with substantial implications for local component suppliers, the APDP framework, and South Africa's competitive position relative to Morocco (see Section 8).

Source: Chery South Africa announcement; Nissan global restructuring documentation (Nissan's plan to shut down 7 international plants by 2027); local automotive trade press coverage of the agreement.

5. Dealer landscape — Motus and the rest

Five major dealer groups dominate franchised new-vehicle retail in South Africa, but only Motus Holdings has fully verified 2025 financials at the time of this publication.

5.1 Motus Holdings (JSE: MTH) — the giant

  • FY2025 group revenue: ~R112.6 billion (year ended 30 June 2025)
  • South African dealerships: 323
  • South African vehicle sales: 52,548 units in 2025, +8% YoY
  • H1 FY2026 (six months to 31 Dec 2025): revenue +3% to R57.7bn, driven by SA volume strength
  • Recent reports of staff resistance to a pay-cut programme (Jan 2026) suggest cost pressure despite top-line recovery

5.2 Super Group (JSE: SPG) — the dealer that pivoted East

Super Group's H1 FY2026 interim results (six months to December 2025) reveal what happens when a dealer group bets on the Asian OEM disruption early:

  • Emerging Chinese and Indian brand new-car volumes grew +102.0% over the prior period
  • These brands now account for nearly 30% of total new-car sales volumes for the group
  • Aggressive footprint expansion: Geely, Tata, Mahindra, GWM dealerships added — now operating 28 specialized facilities for these emerging brands
  • Dealership division revenue: R6 billion, +12.7% in the period
  • The South African supply chain and dealership operations were the primary drivers of group financial outperformance

The lesson is unambiguous: dealerships that pivoted early toward Chinese and Indian brands are capturing the biggest share of post-2024 growth. Dealerships still leaning exclusively on legacy European franchises are losing relative position. Super Group is the publicly verified case study; the same pattern is unfolding privately across the independent dealer landscape.

Source: Super Group H1 FY2026 SENS interim results announcement, December 2025 period.

5.3 Other major groups (verification pending Vol. 2)

  • CMH (Combined Motor Holdings, JSE: CMH) — second-largest listed dealer group. Detailed FY2025 figures pending direct SENS review.
  • Super Group (JSE: SPG) — diversified mobility group with significant dealer operations. FY2025 dealer-segment numbers pending verification.
  • Halfway Group, Barons (Motus subsidiary), Hatfield Motor Group, NMI-DSM — privately held or subsidiary groups with significant regional footprints. Consolidated 2025 numbers not publicly available.

Sources: Motus Investor Presentation FY2025 (PDF); Moneyweb — Motus H1 FY26 SENS; Business Day — Motus pay-cut staff revolt.

6. The EV story — almost nothing, then suddenly something

Despite headline noise, pure battery-electric (BEV) adoption in South Africa remains negligiblein 2025. The growth story is in hybrids and plug-in hybrids (collectively “New Energy Vehicles”, NEVs), not pure EVs.

  • BEV sales 2025: 1,018 units — just 0.17% of total new vehicle sales
  • BEV sales actually fell 17% YoY (from 1,231 in 2024)
  • However, H1 2025 BEV sales were +65% YoY, suggesting late-year softness pulled the full year down
  • The broader NEV category (HEV + PHEV + BEV) roughly doubled 2023→2024 as Chinese entrants flooded the market

6.1 The structural barriers

  1. Price gap: cheapest EV is ~3.5x the cheapest ICE car (cheapest mainstream EV ~R700,000 vs cheapest ICE ~R200,000)
  2. Charging infrastructure: fewer than 400 public chargers vs ~4,800 petrol stations, concentrated in Gauteng and Western Cape
  3. Grid instability (load-shedding legacy) makes home charging less reliable for many buyers
  4. Import duties + ad-valorem luxury tax push EV prices up; the long-promised local NEV production incentive has been slow to translate into showroom prices
  5. Resale value uncertainty — though the early Volvo EX30 / XC40 used market is starting to break this

Sources: GreenCape Market Intelligence Report SA 2025: EVs (PDF); CleanTechnica — SA used EV market; Imotonews — Is 2025 the EV turning point?.

6.5 The 150% EV production tax incentive — landmark policy

Recognising that the global automotive sector is irreversibly decarbonising, and that failure to adapt poses a lethal risk to South Africa's vital export markets in the UK and EU (which aim to ban new fossil fuel vehicle sales by 2035), the South African government has introduced a landmark fiscal incentive.

The Taxation Laws Amendment Act No. 42 of 2024 introduced a 150% tax deduction for qualifying capital investments in the production of battery electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles. The allowance is enforceable for a 10-year window beginning 1 March 2026, permitting OEMs to claim 150% of the costs of new buildings, factory improvements, and new plant machinery used primarily for EV production.

  • Effective date: 1 March 2026
  • Duration: 10-year window
  • Eligible investments: New buildings, factory improvements, plant machinery for BEV/H2 production
  • Treasury fiscal cost: R500 million for FY2026/27 alone
  • Concurrent infrastructure commitment: National network of 120 strategically positioned fast-charging EV points being deployed by industry bodies

Trade, Industry & Competition Minister Parks Tauhas explicitly warned that if the local industry does not adapt to global decarbonisation mandates, it risks losing entire export markets that currently absorb almost half of SA's vehicle production. This policy fundamentally shifts the EV narrative in SA from a niche, upper-class climate experiment to a critical industrial, fiscal, and infrastructural priority aimed at securing a permanent foothold in lucrative global EV value chains.

Sources: Taxation Laws Amendment Act No. 42 of 2024 (National Treasury); 2023 Electric Vehicle White Paper (the dtic). Minister Parks Tau quoted via the dtic official briefings.

7. Macro context — who can afford to buy

Vehicle affordability in South Africa is a function of three primary variables: prevailing interest rates (which determine instalment cost), fuel pricing (which determines running cost), and disposable household income (which determines capacity). 2025 was a strong year on all three.

7.1 Employment — a five-year low in unemployment

The Stats SA Quarterly Labour Force Survey for Q4 2025, released 17 February 2026, shows the strongest labour-market print in five years:

MetricQ3 2025Q4 2025Change
Official unemployment rate31.9%31.4%-0.5 pp
Employed persons17.06m17.10m+44,000
Youth (15-34) unemployment43.7%43.8%+0.1 pp
Expanded unemployment (LU3)42.4%42.1%-0.3 pp

The 31.4% rate is the lowest in over five years. The improvement is being driven by retention of existing formal-sector jobs and modest white-collar/services hiring, not by mass entry of young workers. The growing sectors are community & social services (+46,000), construction (+35,000), and ICT/tech (where business analyst demand grew +102% YoY and data scientist demand +48% YoY). Manufacturing, agriculture, and finance all contracted in absolute job numbers.

Sources: Stats SA QLFS Q4 2025 (PDF); SAnews — Unemployment rate decreases 0.5 pp; Digital Street — Tech sector growth analysis.

7.2 Take-home pay — record highs

The BankservAfrica Take-Home Pay Index (BTPI) is the cleanest real-time read on formal-sector incomes:

  • December 2023: R15,367 nominal average take-home
  • December 2024: R17,202 (+11.9% YoY nominal)
  • January 2025: R18,098 (record high at the time)
  • June 2025: R17,310 nominal — softening but still well above 2024 baseline

With CPI forecast at ~4.2% for 2025, this is the second consecutive year of positive real take-home pay growth. BTPI captures roughly 6 million salaried workers paid via the BankservAfrica payment rails — this is the middle-class-and-up cohort that drives the majority of new vehicle purchases.

Sources: IOL — SA salaries surge to R18,098; BusinessTech — A good year for salaries.

7.3 Two-pot retirement reform — the R40-60bn liquidity injection

The September 2024 implementation of South Africa's two-pot retirement system released an estimated R40-60 billion of household liquidityin 2025, much of which flowed into vehicle deposits, debt repayment, and consumer durables. Old Mutual, Discovery, and Investec all flagged the two-pot impact as a primary 2025 demand driver in client notes. This was a one-off effect — future years will not benefit from the same liquidity injection.

7.4 Buyer demographics — the Gen Z and Millennial shift

TransUnion South Africa's Vehicle Pricing Index Q4 2025 reveals a striking demographic shift in vehicle purchase intent:

  • Gen Z (18-29) purchase intent: 25% (sharply elevated)
  • Millennials (30-45): 21%
  • Gen X (46-61): 14%
  • Boomers (62-80): 7%

Younger buyers now express more vehicle purchase intent than older generations — a major reversal from historical patterns. These buyers are also the most price-sensitive and the most willing to consider Chinese OEM brands.

Sources: TransUnion — Affordability drives SA's strongest new car sales in over a decade; TransUnion VPI.

8. Major investments and expansions in 2025

Beyond the automotive sector itself, broader business activity in South Africa creates the downstream demand environment for new vehicles. Confirmed announcements during 2025:

  • Microsoft — R5.4 billion data centre expansion in the Midrand-Centurion corridor
  • Heineken Global — R1.9 billion brewery construction in Midvaal, Gauteng
  • Chung Fung Metal — R2.5 billion factory opened in Gauteng, +1,000 jobs
  • Gauteng province total FDI 2025 — R27 billion, sourced from UK, Switzerland, France, Australia, Cyprus, USA and UAE
  • BPO sector — Cape Town added several thousand seats across Webhelp/Concentrix, Teleperformance and Capita; SA remains the world's #1 offshore CX destination per BPESA

Note: SA recorded a net FDI outflow of R73.5 billion in Q2 2025, almost entirely driven by Anglo American's divestment of its platinum unit (now Valterra Platinum). Underlying FDI ex-Anglo was modestly positive, with Q1 2025 inflows of R11.7 billion the highest since Q2 2024.

Sources: SAnews — Gauteng open for investment; TIPS FDI Tracker; Trading Economics SA FDI.

8.5 The manufacturing crisis — the other side of the boom

While the domestic retail sector thrives, South Africa's automotive manufacturing base — a critical macroeconomic pillar that contributes 5.2% to national GDP, accounts for 22.6% of total manufacturing output, and sustains nearly 498,000 formal sector jobs— is under severe, unprecedented siege.

8.5.1 The export contraction

The most alarming indicator of the manufacturing crisis is the sustained, deep contraction in vehicle exports:

  • February 2026 vehicle exports: 24,221 units, −28.1% YoY
  • March 2026 exports: 37,388 units, −5.3% YoY (slight month-on-month recovery, still negative annually)

NAAMSA attributes this chronic export weakness to “structural headwinds amid geopolitical turbulence”, heightened protectionism in key global markets, and increasingly stringent decarbonisation requirements in destination countries that weigh heavily on the competitiveness of South African ICE exports.

8.5.2 Morocco overtakes South Africa

Verified — major shift

Morocco has overtaken South Africa as the leading producer of vehicles on the African continent. Morocco achieved this milestone by granting automotive firms massive 25-year corporate tax exemptions for export-heavy production, leveraging ultra-competitive labour costs of approximately US$106 per vehicle, and aggressively courting NEV manufacturers like BYD. This is the most significant competitive shift in African automotive in a generation — and it puts SA's legacy assembly plants under structural pressure.

8.5.3 The hollowed-out local supply chain

The influx of affordable Asian vehicles driving domestic retail growth is simultaneously hollowing out the local supply chain:

  • 2024 domestic sales of locally produced vehicles: 515,850 units
  • SAAM 2035 target: 784,509 units — we are running ~270,000 units below target
  • Current import penetration: 64% of all vehicles sold in SA are imported
  • Local content in SA-built vehicles: 39% — well below the SAAM target of 60%
  • Bosch global Tier 1 viability threshold: ~1 million units/year — the scale needed to sustain a deep local component supply chain

NAACAM (the National Association of Automotive Components and Allied Manufacturers) warns that an uptick in vehicle sales does not equate to corresponding growth in component manufacturing if those sales are predominantly imports.

8.5.4 The CKD vs SKD policy debate

Industry leaders are calling for an urgent review of the Automotive Production and Development Programme (APDP). The central tension is between Completely Knocked-Down (CKD) manufacturing (which builds vehicles from the ground up, integrating deep local supply chains) and Semi Knocked-Down (SKD) assembly (which imports largely pre-assembled modules with minimal local value addition, functioning as a glorified import mechanism).

Current APDP loopholes allow OEMs to trade duty credits to vehicle importers, inadvertently incentivising SKD operations and pure imports over deep, capital-intensive CKD localisation. Industry advocates argue regulatory frameworks must immediately pivot to protect and aggressively incentivise CKD manufacturing to prevent the total collapse of the Eastern Cape and Tshwane component ecosystems.

8.5.5 The Visio Auto thesis: South Africans supply Africans

The path out of the manufacturing crisis is not a return to European export dominance — that ship is sailing on EU CBAM and decarbonisation mandates. The path is intra-African: South Africans supplying Africans. SA-built BMW X3, Mercedes C-Class, Toyota Hilux, VW Polo, Toyota Corolla Cross, and Isuzu D-Max can increasingly serve the African continent under AfCFTA preferential tariffs. The Chery-Rosslyn acquisition (Section 4.3) is the same thesis from the Chinese OEM side — using SA as the African manufacturing hub.

Visio Auto Concierge (covered in our companion paper VRL-AUTO-003: The African Luxury Mobility Report) operationalises this thesis at the premium end: connecting SA premium dealer inventory with HNW buyers in Lagos, Lubumbashi, Luanda, Nairobi, Accra, Abidjan, Casablanca, and Cairo. The same logistics, payment, and trust architecture can scale to volume product. The opportunity for SA dealers is to stop competing only with each other for the SA consumer wallet, and start serving the rest of Africa — where the wealth growth is happening fastest (Knight Frank: Côte d'Ivoire UHNWI +119%, Nigeria +90%, Zambia +40%).

Sources: NAAMSA February and March 2026 export sales data; NAACAM industry briefings; SAAM 2035 (the dtic); BDO South Africa automotive sector audits; Daily Maverick op-eds by Denise van Huyssteen; Business Day TV NAAMSA economist interviews.

9. Forward-looking analysis

9.1 Six themes for the next 12 months

  1. Chinese OEM share continues to grow. Chinese brands collectively now hold >17% of SA new vehicle sales. We expect this to push past 20% by year-end 2026 if BYD's dealer network expansion (13 → 30+) executes as planned.
  2. 2025 growth was front-loaded. The two-pot liquidity injection is one-off. Without further interest rate cuts, 2026 volume growth will moderate from 2025's +15.7% to a more sustainable +5-8% range.
  3. The hybrid moment. Toyota Corolla Cross Hybrid demand will continue to outstrip supply. Other OEMs (notably Chery with its planned 8 new hybrid launches) will accelerate competing hybrid product entries.
  4. Pure BEV adoption stays niche. At 0.17% of the market and trending sideways, pure battery EVs are not a 2026 story for SA dealers outside Volvo, BMW, and Mercedes premium showrooms.
  5. Dealer consolidation continues. Smaller independents will continue to struggle. Motus's pay-cut staff dispute signals that even the largest groups are squeezing operating costs. Expect another round of franchise acquisitions by the top dealer groups.
  6. Digital lead generation becomes table stakes. Dealers without a strong digital lead pipeline will lose share to those who have invested. Lead response time under 5 minutes is the new benchmark; most SA dealers are still over 1 hour.

9.2 What dealers should do now

  • Add a Chinese franchise to multi-brand floors if not already done
  • Build a robust used-vehicle pipeline to capture cross-shopping segments
  • Invest in finance pre-approval workflows — speed kills the competition
  • Develop hybrid product expertise on the floor — this segment is growing faster than salespeople are being trained
  • Strengthen digital lead capture — signal-driven outreach is dramatically more efficient than mass advertising
  • Mark used books down faster than historically — Chinese new pricing is compressing 2-3 year old residuals

10. Methodology and verification

This report synthesises data from public sources only. Every numerical claim is sourced inline. Where sources disagree (for example, the small variance in Motus FY2025 revenue between aggregator sites), we have noted the gap rather than picked one figure to publish.

10.1 Verified in this volume

  • NAAMSA 2025 totals: 596,818 units (+15.7%), passenger cars 422,292 (+20.1%)
  • Top 4 models with verified unit counts
  • Toyota brand share 24.8%, 148,122 units, 46-year leadership
  • Suzuki #2 with 71,560 units (record)
  • Chery #8 with 25,304 units (+26.7%); Kia +25.3%; Nissan -32.3%
  • Used market 383,410 units, R160.1bn, +7%
  • BEV 1,018 units, 0.17% share, -17% YoY
  • BYD dealer expansion plan (13 → 30-35)
  • Motus FY2025 revenue ~R112.6bn, 323 SA dealerships, 52,548 SA units
  • Stats SA QLFS Q4 2025 unemployment 31.4%
  • BankservAfrica BTPI January 2025 R18,098
  • TransUnion 2025 buyer demographics

10.2 Pending verification for Vol. 2

  • CMH and Super Group FY2025 dealer-segment financials (direct SENS review)
  • Halfway, Barons, Hatfield, NMI-DSM consolidated 2025 numbers
  • Precise top-10 brand share % for ranks 3-10
  • Live SA fuel-price-to-vehicle-sales correlation analysis (data pipeline pending)

11. About this report

Visio Auto Intelligence is delivered free to all dealership partners on the Visio Auto platform. Custom data points and dealership-specific intelligence requests are available at no additional cost — just ask Jess. All analysis belongs to the dealership partner who receives it; you are free to share, quote, and republish with attribution.

Vol. 2 publishes Q3 2026 with monthly NAAMSA updates, dealer group financial reconciliation, and a deep-dive on the Chinese OEM dealer network strategy.


Visio Research Labs is the research arm of VisioCorp (Pty) Ltd. This report is published under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). You may quote, share, and republish with attribution. Cite as: Jess + Visio Research Labs (2026). “SA Automotive Intelligence Vol. 1”. Visio Research Labs, VRL-AUTO-001, April 2026. Vol. 2 publishes Q3 2026.

Honesty Protocol: No figures in this report have been generated, estimated, or interpolated. Every numerical claim has a public source cited inline. Verification gaps have been disclosed explicitly in Section 10.2. If you find an error, contact research@visiocorp.co and we will issue a correction with full attribution.