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VRL-AUTO-001 — SA Auto Market Vol.1 2026.pdf
SECURE
VRL-AUTO-001 · April 2026

South African Automotive Intelligence Report

Visio Research Labs · Authored by Jess (AI) · Reviewed by VRL Editorial

Read Full Report
SA Market
  • NAAMSA monthly sales by brand & model
  • Top 10 selling vehicles (passenger / SUV / bakkie / luxury)
  • Dealer group performance (Motus, CMH, Halfway, etc.)
  • Used market dynamics (AutoTrader, Cars.co.za)
  • Provincial sales heatmaps
Macroeconomic
  • Brent crude → SA fuel price → vehicle demand correlation
  • ZAR exchange rate impact on import pricing
  • Repo rate & vehicle finance approval trends
  • CPI inflation & disposable income
  • WesBank & MFC finance volume reports
Business Intelligence
  • CIPC new business registrations by sector
  • Job market: Stats SA QLFS, sector growth
  • Major foreign investment & expansion announcements
  • Forbes Africa, Daily Maverick, Business Day briefings
  • Sandton, Cape Town, Umhlanga corporate hotspots
Global Context
  • Chinese OEM expansion (BYD, GWM, Chery, Omoda)
  • EV transition & charging infrastructure
  • Global supply chain & lead times
  • Toyota / VW / BMW global strategy shifts
  • EU CBAM impact on SA automotive exports

Vol.1 covers verified 2025 NAAMSA data: 596,818 units (+15.7% YoY), Toyota Hilux 36,525 units (#1, 13th straight year), Suzuki overtakes VW for #2, Chery #8 (+26.7%), Q4 2025 unemployment 5-year low at 31.4%, BankservAfrica avg take-home R18,098. Every figure cited. Sources: NAAMSA, Stats SA, CIPC, SARB, Motus SENS, TransUnion, AutoTrader.

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UPDATED Q1 2026

What's actually happening
in the SA market— right now.

Verified data. Cited sources. Actionable insight on every card. This is the live face of the Visio Intelligence Report — updated as the market moves. Free for every dealership partner.

Q1 2026 New Vehicle Sales

The market is accelerating

0K15K30K45K60K50.1KJan 2026+7.5% YoY53.5KFeb 2026+11.4% YoY58.1KMar 2026+17.3% YoY

Source: NAAMSA monthly releases, January–March 2026 · Best March since 2007

2025 Brand Share

Toyota leads. Chinese OEMs surge.

596,818UNITS 2025
Toyota24.8%
Suzuki12%
VW Group11.5%
Chinese OEMs17.2%
Other34.5%

Source: NAAMSA Full Year 2025 · Chinese OEM share of new passenger sales

March 2026 Top 10 OEMs

Asian brands hold 5 of top 10

Asian-owned highlighted ▰
01. Toyota13,32302. VW Group5,57403. Suzuki5,04704. Isuzu3,51305. Hyundai3,25806. Ford2,82807. GWM2,77708. Chery2,39009. Mahindra2,28010. Jetour1,768

Source: NAAMSA March 2026 industry report · 4 of top 10 are Chinese/Indian OEMs

CRISISVehicle Exports

February 2026 exports −28.1% YoY

Feb 202533.7KMar 202539.5KFeb 202624.2KMar 202637.4K

Source: NAAMSA export sales February & March 2026 · Morocco overtook SA as #1 African producer

Q1 2026

March 2026 = best March since 2007

58,060 units+17.3% YoY

What this means →Buyers are flooding showrooms. If you're not converting walk-ins to test drives within 24 hours, you're losing this momentum to competitors.

Source: NAAMSA March 2026

Macro

Prime rate at 10.25%

−150 bps since Sept 202413-yr dealer confidence high

What this means →Vehicle finance is dramatically more affordable than 12 months ago. Push pre-approval flows aggressively — the buyer who couldn't qualify in 2024 can qualify now.

Source: SARB MPC + NADA

Watershed

Chery acquires Nissan Rosslyn

60-yr-old plant~3,000 jobs preserved

What this means →First major Chinese OEM SA manufacturing footprint. If you haven't added a Chinese franchise, the window is closing — Chery, GWM, Haval, Omoda, Jaecoo, BYD will accelerate dealer recruitment to support local production by end-2027.

Source: Chery SA + Nissan Global

Top 10

4 of top 10 brands are Asian

GWM, Chery, Mahindra, Jetour~10,000 units in March alone

What this means →Suzuki overtook VW for #2 brand last year. Isuzu just displaced Hyundai for #4. The legacy hierarchy is rearranging in real time — adjust your competitive intel and pricing benchmarks weekly, not annually.

Source: NAAMSA March 2026 rankings

Cost Shock

Diesel hit R26.11/litre record

+R7/litre April 2026Petrol +R3.06/litre

What this means →Buyer psychology has shifted from initial price to total cost of ownership. Lead with fuel efficiency, hybrid options, maintenance plans, and 5-year cost projections. The hybrid Corolla Cross and Haval H6 HEV are converting on this signal alone.

Source: DMRE April 2026

Crisis

Vehicle exports −28.1% YoY

Feb 2026 = 24,221 unitsMorocco overtook SA #1

What this means →SA's traditional EU/UK export markets are eroding. The opportunity is intra-African: SA-built BMW X3, Mercedes C-Class, Toyota Hilux can serve Lagos, Lubumbashi, Luanda under AfCFTA. South Africans supplying Africans is the new manufacturing thesis.

Source: NAAMSA Feb 2026 export data

Super Group

Asian brand sales +102% in 6 months

30% of new car volumesDealership rev R6bn (+12.7%)

What this means →Super Group's H1 FY26 results prove that dealers who pivoted East are dramatically outperforming. 28 specialized facilities for emerging brands. The case study is published — the playbook is clear.

Source: Super Group H1 FY26 SENS

EV Policy

150% tax deduction now live

Effective 1 March 202610-year window

What this means →OEMs investing in BEV/H2 production capacity claim 150% of capex against tax. Treasury fiscal cost R500m FY26/27 alone. This is the green light for EV manufacturing in SA — expect new model announcements within 12 months.

Source: Tax Laws Amendment Act 42 of 2024